Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus: model vs market
| Source | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | +18% | -6% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kawasaki Frontale below the model: +17.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kawasaki Frontale, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.90 | -0.08 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 3.80 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Nagoya Grampus)
- 1.29 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Nagoya Grampus)
- 1.01 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals. Columns: Nagoya Grampus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kawasaki Frontale | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kawasaki Frontale or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Nagoya Grampus) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kawasaki Frontale win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus recent form
Kawasaki Frontale
4W 1D 1L
Nagoya Grampus
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kawasaki Frontale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Nagoya Grampus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kawasaki Frontale at home only, Nagoya Grampus away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page 2026-10-10
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page 2026-10-10
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki 2026-10-11
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse 2026-10-11
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