JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	JEF United Chiba	Draw	V-varen Nagasaki
Model	29%	25%	45%
Market	35%	28%	37%
Published	33%	28%	39%
Edge	-5%	-3%	+8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.37.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices V-varen Nagasaki below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki odds movement

Median bookmaker price on V-varen Nagasaki, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.51Now 2.50 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
JEF United Chiba	2.70	2.70	+0.00
Draw	3.35	3.30	-0.06
V-varen Nagasaki	2.51	2.50	-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37JEF United Chiba

1.75V-varen Nagasaki

Total expected goals: 3.12
Attack rating (JEF United Chiba / V-varen Nagasaki): 0.84 / 1.01
Defence rating (JEF United Chiba / V-varen Nagasaki): 1.33 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 6.6% 6.8% 3.9% 2.6% 1 5.0% 11.6% 9.3% 5.4% 3.5% 2 4.1% 7.2% 6.4% 3.7% 2.4% 3 1.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 4+ 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5%

Rows: JEF United Chiba goals. Columns: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 60%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	JEF United Chiba	33%	3.02
	Draw	28%	3.63
	V-varen Nagasaki	39%	2.54
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.66
	Under 2.5	40%	2.53
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.69
Double chance	1X (JEF United Chiba or draw)	61%	1.65
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or V-varen Nagasaki)	67%	1.50
Handicap -1	V-varen Nagasaki win by 2+	25%	4.00
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
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JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki recent form

JEF United Chiba 1W 2D 3L

V-varen Nagasaki 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

JEF United Chiba at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

V-varen Nagasaki away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: JEF United Chiba at home only, V-varen Nagasaki away only.

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Prediction snapshot V-varen Nagasaki to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on V-varen Nagasaki