Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos preview
Cerezo Osaka faces Yokohama F. Marinos with a 38% chance of winning, compared to 36% for Yokohama and a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 6% of the time. Cerezo has expected goals of 1.09, while Yokohama's is higher at 1.65, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
The market suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, Cerezo's recent form shows inconsistency with two draws and two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Yokohama, on the other hand, has won three of their last five, adding to their confidence heading into the match.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos: model vs market
| Source | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | -19% | +1% | +18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cerezo Osaka, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 2.16 | 2.18 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Cerezo Osaka / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 1.08 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Cerezo Osaka / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 1.09 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerezo Osaka goals. Columns: Yokohama F. Marinos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerezo Osaka or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Yokohama F. Marinos) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerezo Osaka win by 2+ | 10% | 10.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form
Cerezo Osaka
2W 2D 2L
Yokohama F. Marinos
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerezo Osaka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerezo Osaka at home only, Yokohama F. Marinos away only.
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