Kashima vs Gamba Osaka preview
Kashima hosts Gamba Osaka in the J1 League with a 49% chance of winning, making them the favorites. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with a strong 68% probability for Over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
However, Gamba Osaka's recent form shows only one win in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Kashima's mixed results, with two losses in their last five, also suggest potential vulnerabilities. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Kashima | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | -8% | -1% | +9% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kashima, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.88 | 1.83 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Gamba Osaka | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kashima and Gamba Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Kashima / Gamba Osaka)
- 1.36 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Kashima / Gamba Osaka)
- 1.15 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kashima goals. Columns: Gamba Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kashima vs Gamba Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Gamba Osaka | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kashima or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Gamba Osaka) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kashima and Gamba Osaka recent form
Kashima
2W 1D 3L
Gamba Osaka
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kashima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Gamba Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kashima at home only, Gamba Osaka away only.
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kashima 6 · draws 3 · Gamba Osaka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Kashima | 0-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-05-31 | Gamba Osaka | 0-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2024-06-26 | Kashima | 0-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2024-04-28 | Gamba Osaka | 1-2 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2023-06-24 | Gamba Osaka | 2-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2023-04-29 | Kashima | 4-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2022-11-05 | Kashima | 0-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2022-07-13 | Kashima | 2-0 | Gamba Osaka | Emperor Cup |
| 2022-05-18 | Gamba Osaka | 1-3 | Kashima | J-League Cup |
| 2022-03-26 | Kashima | 4-1 | Gamba Osaka | J-League Cup |
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