FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock preview
In the J1 League fixture between FC Tokyo and Mito Hollyhock, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Tokyo at 79%, while Mito Hollyhock sits at just 5%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, which aligns with FC Tokyo's expected goals of 2.45 compared to Mito Hollyhock's 0.52. FC Tokyo's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive wins, while Mito Hollyhock has struggled, recording 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors such as an unexpected defensive performance from Mito Hollyhock or a lack of finishing from FC Tokyo could lead to a different outcome. Additionally, the model suggests a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score, which reflects the potential for surprises in this matchup.
FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock: model vs market
| Source | FC Tokyo | Draw | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Tokyo and Mito Hollyhock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (FC Tokyo / Mito Hollyhock)
- 1.65 / 0.71
- Defence rating (FC Tokyo / Mito Hollyhock)
- 0.55 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tokyo goals. Columns: Mito Hollyhock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 80% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.56 | |
| Mito Hollyhock | 5% | 19.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tokyo or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Mito Hollyhock) | 20% | 4.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 58% | 1.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Tokyo and Mito Hollyhock recent form
FC Tokyo
6W 0D 0L
Mito Hollyhock
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tokyo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mito Hollyhock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tokyo at home only, Mito Hollyhock away only.
FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Tokyo 1 · draws 1 · Mito Hollyhock 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | FC Tokyo | 5-2 | Mito Hollyhock | J1 League |
| 2026-03-14 | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Tokyo, previous: FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol, 2026-10-21
- Mito Hollyhock, previous: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock, 2026-10-21