Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo preview
Fagiano Okayama faces FC Tokyo with a 1X2 probability of 22% for Okayama, 26% for a draw, and 52% for Tokyo. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which occurs at 14%. FC Tokyo has shown strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 6 matches, while Okayama has only won 2 out of their last 6.
The expected goals for Okayama stand at 0.64, while Tokyo has a much higher expectation of 2.17. With Over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 43%, the match could see a high-scoring outcome. However, if Okayama improves their performance or if Tokyo underperforms, the predictions could change.
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo: model vs market
| Source | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Published | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Tokyo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 3.51 | 3.51 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.00 |
| FC Tokyo | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Fagiano Okayama / FC Tokyo)
- 0.97 / 1.75
- Defence rating (Fagiano Okayama / FC Tokyo)
- 0.95 / 0.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fagiano Okayama goals. Columns: FC Tokyo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 22% | 4.51 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| FC Tokyo | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fagiano Okayama or draw) | 48% | 2.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Tokyo) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo recent form
Fagiano Okayama
2W 0D 4L
FC Tokyo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fagiano Okayama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Tokyo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fagiano Okayama at home only, FC Tokyo away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Fagiano Okayama, previous: Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama analysis
- FC Tokyo, previous: FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock: odds and pick