Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse preview
In the upcoming match between Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse, the 1X2 probabilities show Kyoto Sanga at 47%, while Shimizu S-pulse sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a 55% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score.
Kyoto Sanga's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 losses, while Shimizu S-pulse has 4 wins and 2 losses. Despite Kyoto's slight edge in the 1X2 probabilities, their head-to-head record shows 0 wins against Shimizu's 1 win and 1 draw in the last 2 encounters. This could impact the outcome, especially considering the confidence grade of C.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse: model vs market
| Source | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Kyoto Sanga below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kyoto Sanga, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto Sanga | 2.63 | 2.63 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Kyoto Sanga / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 0.90 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Kyoto Sanga / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 1.13 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals. Columns: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kyoto Sanga or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Shimizu S-pulse) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kyoto Sanga win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
Kyoto Sanga
2W 2D 2L
Shimizu S-pulse
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kyoto Sanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kyoto Sanga at home only, Shimizu S-pulse away only.
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kyoto Sanga 0 · draws 1 · Shimizu S-pulse 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Kyoto Sanga | 1-2 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2026-02-14 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-1 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kyoto Sanga, previous: Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga prediction
- Shimizu S-pulse, previous: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse prediction