Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy: model vs market
| Source | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shimizu S-pulse, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 2.30 | 2.38 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.11 | -0.03 |
| Tokyo Verdy | 3.20 | 3.07 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Tokyo Verdy)
- 0.73 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Tokyo Verdy)
- 1.31 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Columns: Tokyo Verdy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Tokyo Verdy | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shimizu S-pulse or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Tokyo Verdy) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win by 2+ | 13% | 7.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
2W 1D 3L
Tokyo Verdy
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shimizu S-pulse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tokyo Verdy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shimizu S-pulse at home only, Tokyo Verdy away only.
Expected lineups
Shimizu S-pulse lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Y. Oki
- 25 Mateus Brunetti
- 14 Park Seung-Wook
- 3 Y. Takahashi
- 24 H. Sugai
- 17 M. Yumiba
- 37 K. Koizumi
- 50 T. Fujii
- 18 T. Hirato
- 8 K. Inoue
- 9 Oh Se-Hun
Bench: Won Du-Jae, Capixaba, R. Germain, T. Umeda, K. Matsuzaki, Y. Yoshida, Y. Shimamoto, K. Kozuka, R. Ohata
Tokyo Verdy lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 Matheus Vidotto
- 96 Cho Yu-Min
- 4 N. Hayashi
- 40 Y. Arai
- 18 S. Mizoguchi
- 10 K. Morita
- 16 R. Hirakawa
- 22 Y. Uchida
- 19 K. Fujimoto
- 33 K. Ichimi
- 9 I. Someno
Bench: K. Shibato, Y. Matsuhashi, G. Yamada, Y. Fukuda, K. Suzuki, Y. Nagasawa, I. Kumatoriya, M. Sako, S. Teranuma
Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Shimizu S-pulse 5 · draws 1 · Tokyo Verdy 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-0 | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| 2025-02-16 | Tokyo Verdy | 0-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2024-09-29 | Tokyo Verdy | 3-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-12-02 | Tokyo Verdy | 1-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2023-08-06 | Tokyo Verdy | 0-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2023-04-08 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2-1 | Tokyo Verdy | J2 League |
| 2016-07-20 | Shimizu S-pulse | 0-1 | Tokyo Verdy | J2 League |
| 2016-05-22 | Tokyo Verdy | 2-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2012-10-10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-0 | Tokyo Verdy | Emperor Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Shimizu S-pulse, previous: Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse: odds and pick
- Tokyo Verdy, previous: V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy prediction