Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki: model vs market
| Source | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avispa Fukuoka, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 2.06 | 2.19 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.32 | -0.08 |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 3.48 | 3.30 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Avispa Fukuoka / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 0.65 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Avispa Fukuoka / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 1.28 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Columns: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avispa Fukuoka or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or V-varen Nagasaki) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win by 2+ | 9% | 11.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Avispa Fukuoka and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
Avispa Fukuoka
1W 0D 5L
V-varen Nagasaki
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avispa Fukuoka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avispa Fukuoka at home only, V-varen Nagasaki away only.
Expected lineups
Avispa Fukuoka lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 T. Nagaishi
- 16 T. Oka
- 5 T. Kamijima
- 20 K. Mikuni
- 47 Y. Hashimoto
- 11 T. Miki
- 34 K. Shiihashi
- 2 M. Yuzawa
- 14 S. Nago
- 13 S. Morooka
- 9 Werik Popó
Bench: M. Shigemi, S. Usui, K. Okuno, Y. Tsujioka, H. Akino, S. Sato, Y. Obata, Y. Kitajima, M. Tashiro
V-varen Nagasaki lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 M. Goto
- 6 Y. Egawa
- 29 I. Arai
- 31 K. Doi
- 23 S. Yoneda
- 41 M. Hasegawa
- 5 H. Yamaguchi
- 22 H. Onaga
- 7 K. Yasuda
- 10 Matheus Jesus
- 18 R. Yamasaki
Bench: Y. Iwasaki, Thiago Santana, G. Hatano, Emerson Deocleciano, Diego Pituca, T. Matsumoto, R. Shindo, A. Masuyama, Jonathan
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 5 · draws 1 · V-varen Nagasaki 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League |
| 2026-03-15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 1-0 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2022-07-13 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup |
| 2020-09-27 | V-varen Nagasaki | 1-3 | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League |
| 2020-07-04 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-2 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2019-09-07 | V-varen Nagasaki | 1-0 | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League |
| 2019-03-02 | Avispa Fukuoka | 0-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2017-08-16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 0-1 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
| 2017-04-15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 0-1 | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League |
| 2015-11-29 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-07
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-11-07
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page 2026-11-07
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa 2026-11-08
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Avispa Fukuoka, previous: JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction
- V-varen Nagasaki, previous: V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy prediction