Updated

J1 League · Matchday 14

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama

· Nissan Stadium, Yokohama· Referee Hiroyuki Kimura

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Yokohama F. Marinos to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Yokohama F. MarinosDrawFagiano Okayama

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceYokohama F. MarinosDrawFagiano Okayama
Model60%24%16%
Market38%28%35%
Published43%27%30%
Edge+6%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.89.
  • The market prices Yokohama F. Marinos below our published probability: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yokohama F. Marinos, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.65Now 2.50 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Yokohama F. Marinos2.652.50-0.15
Draw3.313.40+0.09
Fagiano Okayama2.582.70+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89Yokohama F. Marinos
0.89Fagiano Okayama
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Yokohama F. Marinos / Fagiano Okayama)
1.11 / 0.87
Defence rating (Yokohama F. Marinos / Fagiano Okayama)
0.79 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 4.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1 10.7% 11.5% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 2 11.0% 9.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 6.9% 6.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 5.0% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Yokohama F. Marinos goals. Columns: Fagiano Okayama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Yokohama F. Marinos43%2.32
Draw27%3.74
Fagiano Okayama30%3.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.91
Under 2.548%2.10
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Yokohama F. Marinos or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Fagiano Okayama)57%1.76
Handicap -1Yokohama F. Marinos win by 2+36%2.78
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Yokohama F. Marinos and Fagiano Okayama recent form

Yokohama F. Marinos 2W 4D 0L
Fagiano Okayama 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Yokohama F. Marinos at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fagiano Okayama away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Yokohama F. Marinos at home only, Fagiano Okayama away only.

Expected lineups

Yokohama F. Marinos lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 H. Iikura
  2. 25 T. Suzuki
  3. 33 K. Suwama
  4. 17 J. Quiñónes
  5. 34 T. Kimura
  6. 41 K. Matsumura
  7. 28 R. Yamane
  8. 23 R. Miyaichi
  9. 7 D. Tono
  10. 24 T. Kondo
  11. 9 K. Tanimura

Bench: Park Il-Gyu, T. Kida, T. Inoue, G. Onaiwu, R. Tsunoda, Y. Tanaka, J. Amano, R. Nitta, S. Miidera

Fagiano Okayama lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Moser
  2. 43 Y. Suzuki
  3. 48 Y. Tatsuta
  4. 44 S. Mori
  5. 88 T. Yamane
  6. 80 Oberdan
  7. 41 E. Miyamoto
  8. 26 H. Motoyama
  9. 8 A. Esaka
  10. 20 K. Kawano
  11. 79 N. Browne

Bench: R. Takeuchi, Léo Gaúcho, Na Sang-Ho, R. Sato, I. Fujita, M. Matsumoto, T. Hamada, Y. Fujii

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Yokohama F. Marinos 0 · draws 0 · Fagiano Okayama 2.

Yokohama F. MarinosDrawsFagiano Okayama
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-06-21Yokohama F. Marinos0-1Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
2025-03-29Fagiano Okayama1-0Yokohama F. MarinosJ1 League

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match