Updated

J1 League · Matchday 14

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

· Toyota Stadium, Toyota· Referee Keigo Sendachi

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Nagoya Grampus to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nagoya GrampusDrawKyoto Sanga

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNagoya GrampusDrawKyoto Sanga
Model34%28%39%
Market51%25%24%
Published47%26%28%
Edge-4%+1%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nagoya Grampus, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.81Now 1.85 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nagoya Grampus1.811.85+0.04
Draw3.833.79-0.04
Kyoto Sanga3.923.94+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Nagoya Grampus
1.46Kyoto Sanga
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (Nagoya Grampus / Kyoto Sanga)
0.88 / 0.96
Defence rating (Nagoya Grampus / Kyoto Sanga)
1.16 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 1.6% 1 6.9% 13.1% 8.7% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.5% 8.0% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4% 3 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Nagoya Grampus goals. Columns: Kyoto Sanga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nagoya Grampus47%2.14
Draw26%3.91
Kyoto Sanga28%3.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (Nagoya Grampus or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Kyoto Sanga)53%1.88
Handicap -1Nagoya Grampus win by 2+16%6.41
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga recent form

Nagoya Grampus 2W 2D 2L
Kyoto Sanga 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nagoya Grampus at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kyoto Sanga away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-3
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nagoya Grampus at home only, Kyoto Sanga away only.

Expected lineups

Nagoya Grampus lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 D. Schmidt
  2. 3 Y. Sato
  3. 13 H. Fujii
  4. 70 T. Hara
  5. 27 K. Nakayama
  6. 31 T. Takamine
  7. 15 S. Inagaki
  8. 17 T. Uchida
  9. 22 Y. Kimura
  10. 7 R. Izumi
  11. 11 Y. Yamagishi

Bench: Y. Nogami, Mateus, T. Morishima, H. Koda, S. Sugiura, A. Pisano, M. Ono, S. Tokumoto, T. Koyamatsu

Kyoto Sanga lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 90 Halls
  2. 62 T. Shichi
  3. 50 Y. Suzuki
  4. 5 H. Tawiah
  5. 44 K. Sato
  6. 6 João Pedro
  7. 10 S. Fukuoka
  8. 25 Yoon Sung-Jun
  9. 77 H. Arai
  10. 17 Alex Negueba
  11. 9 Rafael Elias

Bench: G. Ota, M. Okugawa, T. Hiraoka, T. Kato, H. Morooka, Weverton, R. Nakano, S. Nagasawa, F. Honda

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Nagoya Grampus 3 · draws 4 · Kyoto Sanga 3.

Nagoya GrampusDrawsKyoto Sanga
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Nagoya Grampus3-0Kyoto SangaJ1 League
2026-03-22Kyoto Sanga1-1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
2025-08-10Nagoya Grampus1-2Kyoto SangaJ1 League
2025-05-11Kyoto Sanga1-1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
2024-08-07Kyoto Sanga3-2Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
2024-05-26Nagoya Grampus1-1Kyoto SangaJ1 League
2023-07-16Kyoto Sanga2-1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
2023-02-25Nagoya Grampus1-0Kyoto SangaJ1 League
2022-10-08Kyoto Sanga1-1Nagoya GrampusJ1 League
2022-06-11Kyoto Sanga0-1Nagoya GrampusJ-League Cup

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match