Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus preview
In the J1 League fixture, Vissel Kobe has a 55% chance to win against Nagoya Grampus, who has a 19% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Vissel Kobe's expected goals stand at 1.71, while Nagoya Grampus has an expected goals figure of 0.93.
Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to find the net. However, Vissel Kobe's recent form shows they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Nagoya Grampus has only managed 2 wins in their last 5. This disparity in form could affect the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the probabilities.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus: model vs market
| Source | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vissel Kobe, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe | 1.83 | 1.91 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.62 | -0.15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 3.95 | 3.75 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Vissel Kobe / Nagoya Grampus)
- 1.02 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Vissel Kobe / Nagoya Grampus)
- 0.75 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vissel Kobe goals. Columns: Nagoya Grampus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.06 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vissel Kobe or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Nagoya Grampus) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vissel Kobe win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus recent form
Vissel Kobe
3W 1D 2L
Nagoya Grampus
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vissel Kobe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Nagoya Grampus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vissel Kobe at home only, Nagoya Grampus away only.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vissel Kobe 2 · draws 0 · Nagoya Grampus 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vissel Kobe | 3-2 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2026-03-14 | Nagoya Grampus | 0-3 | Vissel Kobe | J1 League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Vissel Kobe, previous: Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia: odds and pick
- Nagoya Grampus, previous: Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: odds and pick