Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview
Mito Hollyhock faces Sanfrecce Hiroshima with a 74% probability for an away win and a most likely scoreline of 0-2 at 14%. Mito Hollyhock's recent form shows 5 losses and 1 draw, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has 5 wins and 1 loss.
The expected goals are 0.67 for Mito Hollyhock and 2.34 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the visitors. However, the 45% chance for both teams to score suggests that Mito Hollyhock could find the net, which may challenge the predicted outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the match.
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: model vs market
| Source | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| Market | 15% | 21% | 65% |
| Published | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Edge | -2% | -2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below our published probability: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 6.40 | 6.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.61 | 4.47 | -0.13 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Mito Hollyhock / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 0.61 / 1.63
- Defence rating (Mito Hollyhock / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 1.36 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mito Hollyhock goals. Columns: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 12% | 8.29 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mito Hollyhock or draw) | 31% | 3.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 65% | 1.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
Mito Hollyhock
0W 0D 6L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mito Hollyhock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mito Hollyhock at home only, Sanfrecce Hiroshima away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Mito Hollyhock, previous: FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock: odds and pick
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, previous: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse prediction