JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock preview
In the J1 League fixture between JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock, the 1X2 probabilities show JEF United Chiba at 65% to win, while Mito Hollyhock sits at just 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance. JEF United Chiba has an expected goals figure of 2.02, compared to Mito Hollyhock's 0.78, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, there are factors that could lead to different outcomes. Mito Hollyhock has not won in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Additionally, both teams have drawn in their previous head-to-head encounters, suggesting that surprises can happen. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 53%, while both teams to score is at 48%, indicating potential for a more competitive match than expected.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock: model vs market
| Source | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices JEF United Chiba below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on JEF United Chiba, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | 2.05 | 1.98 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.39 | 3.44 | +0.05 |
| Mito Hollyhock | 3.45 | 3.65 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (JEF United Chiba / Mito Hollyhock)
- 0.95 / 0.57
- Defence rating (JEF United Chiba / Mito Hollyhock)
- 1.05 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals. Columns: Mito Hollyhock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Mito Hollyhock | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (JEF United Chiba or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Mito Hollyhock) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | JEF United Chiba win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
JEF United Chiba and Mito Hollyhock recent form
JEF United Chiba
1W 3D 2L
Mito Hollyhock
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
JEF United Chiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mito Hollyhock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: JEF United Chiba at home only, Mito Hollyhock away only.
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: JEF United Chiba 5 · draws 4 · Mito Hollyhock 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | JEF United Chiba | 1-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J1 League |
| 2026-02-22 | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 | JEF United Chiba | J1 League |
| 2025-10-19 | Mito Hollyhock | 0-1 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2025-04-05 | JEF United Chiba | 2-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2024-09-07 | JEF United Chiba | 4-0 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2024-03-24 | Mito Hollyhock | 0-0 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2023-10-08 | JEF United Chiba | 1-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2023-06-11 | Mito Hollyhock | 4-1 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2022-10-02 | Mito Hollyhock | 0-1 | JEF United Chiba | J2 League |
| 2022-05-29 | JEF United Chiba | 2-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki 2026-11-07
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page 2026-11-07
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa 2026-11-08
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- JEF United Chiba, previous: JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction
- Mito Hollyhock, previous: Mito Hollyhock – Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2026-10-31