Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka preview
In the J1 League fixture between Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka, the 1X2 probabilities show Gamba Osaka at 55%, while Cerezo Osaka stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Gamba Osaka has an expected goals figure of 2.04 compared to Cerezo Osaka's 1.25, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%. However, Gamba Osaka's recent form includes 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Cerezo Osaka has not won in their last 5 games, indicating possible challenges for both sides.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Gamba Osaka | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gamba Osaka below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gamba Osaka, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 2.20 | 2.25 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.49 | -0.01 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 3.02 | 3.01 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Gamba Osaka / Cerezo Osaka)
- 0.98 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Gamba Osaka / Cerezo Osaka)
- 0.95 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gamba Osaka goals. Columns: Cerezo Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gamba Osaka or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerezo Osaka) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gamba Osaka win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka recent form
Gamba Osaka
2W 3D 1L
Cerezo Osaka
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gamba Osaka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
Cerezo Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gamba Osaka at home only, Cerezo Osaka away only.
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gamba Osaka 3 · draws 2 · Cerezo Osaka 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Gamba Osaka | 0-1 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2026-02-07 | Cerezo Osaka | 0-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-07-05 | Cerezo Osaka | 0-1 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-02-14 | Gamba Osaka | 2-5 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2024-10-02 | Cerezo Osaka | 1-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2024-05-06 | Gamba Osaka | 1-0 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2023-10-28 | Cerezo Osaka | 1-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2023-06-18 | Cerezo Osaka | 0-1 | Gamba Osaka | J-League Cup |
| 2023-05-03 | Gamba Osaka | 1-2 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2023-03-26 | Gamba Osaka | 1-1 | Cerezo Osaka | J-League Cup |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki 2026-11-07
- FC Tokyo vs Kashima — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page 2026-11-07
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa 2026-11-08
- JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gamba Osaka, previous: Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka prediction
- Cerezo Osaka, previous: Kashima – Cerezo Osaka, 2026-10-31