Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka preview
In the J1 League fixture between Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka, the 1X2 probabilities show Machida Zelvia at 67% to win, while Gamba Osaka sits at just 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 2.30 for Machida Zelvia compared to 0.94 for Gamba Osaka.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors that could affect the outcome include Gamba Osaka's recent form, where they have had 2 wins in their last 5 matches, and the possibility of both teams scoring, which our model suggests at 56%.
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Machida Zelvia, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.00 |
| Gamba Osaka | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Machida Zelvia / Gamba Osaka)
- 1.49 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Machida Zelvia / Gamba Osaka)
- 0.63 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Machida Zelvia goals. Columns: Gamba Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Gamba Osaka | 19% | 5.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Machida Zelvia or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Gamba Osaka) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka recent form
Machida Zelvia
4W 1D 1L
Gamba Osaka
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Machida Zelvia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gamba Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Machida Zelvia at home only, Gamba Osaka away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Machida Zelvia, previous: Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia: odds and pick
- Gamba Osaka, previous: Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga prediction