JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka preview
In the fixture between JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka, the 1X2 probabilities show a close contest with JEF United Chiba at 35%, draw at 29%, and Avispa Fukuoka at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.42 for JEF United Chiba and 1.12 for Avispa Fukuoka.
Both teams to score is at 52%, suggesting a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as JEF United Chiba has drawn or lost in their last five matches, while Avispa Fukuoka has lost four of their last five. This inconsistency might lead to a different result than anticipated.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka: model vs market
| Source | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avispa Fukuoka, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 | +0.00 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (JEF United Chiba / Avispa Fukuoka)
- 0.82 / 0.73
- Defence rating (JEF United Chiba / Avispa Fukuoka)
- 1.17 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals. Columns: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (JEF United Chiba or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Avispa Fukuoka) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win by 2+ | 12% | 8.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
JEF United Chiba
0W 3D 3L
Avispa Fukuoka
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
JEF United Chiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avispa Fukuoka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: JEF United Chiba at home only, Avispa Fukuoka away only.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: JEF United Chiba 0 · draws 1 · Avispa Fukuoka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | JEF United Chiba | 1-2 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2026-05-30 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2-2 | JEF United Chiba | J1 League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- JEF United Chiba, previous: Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba analysis
- Avispa Fukuoka, previous: Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka analysis