Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka preview
Kashima faces Cerezo Osaka with a 55% chance of winning, while Cerezo Osaka has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.10 for Kashima and 1.30 for Cerezo Osaka. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 65%.
Recent form shows Kashima with two wins in their last five matches, while Cerezo Osaka has only one win in their last six. This discrepancy in form could influence the outcome, making it possible for Cerezo Osaka to perform better than expected.
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Kashima | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kashima, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.71 | 1.71 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Kashima / Cerezo Osaka)
- 1.39 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Kashima / Cerezo Osaka)
- 1.08 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kashima goals. Columns: Cerezo Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kashima or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerezo Osaka) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka recent form
Kashima
3W 2D 1L
Cerezo Osaka
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kashima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cerezo Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kashima at home only, Cerezo Osaka away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kashima, previous: Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol, 2026-10-24
- Cerezo Osaka, previous: Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba analysis