FC Tokyo vs Kashima: model vs market
| Source | FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below our published probability: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Tokyo vs Kashima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Tokyo, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.54 | -0.00 |
| Kashima | 3.35 | 3.45 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Tokyo and Kashima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (FC Tokyo / Kashima)
- 1.85 / 1.52
- Defence rating (FC Tokyo / Kashima)
- 0.39 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tokyo vs Kashima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tokyo goals. Columns: Kashima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tokyo vs Kashima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tokyo vs Kashima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Kashima | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tokyo or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Kashima) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Tokyo and Kashima recent form
FC Tokyo
5W 1D 0L
Kashima
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tokyo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.1 at home.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kashima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tokyo at home only, Kashima away only.
Expected lineups
FC Tokyo lineup · 4-4-2
- 81 Kim Seung-Gyu
- 6 K. Bangnagande
- 4 H. Inamura
- 24 A. Scholz
- 15 R. Omori
- 33 K. Tawaratsumida
- 8 T. Ko
- 20 S. Nagano
- 7 S. Anzai
- 26 M. Nagakura
- 39 T. Nakagawa
Bench: H. Tanaka, S. Muroya, M. Morishige, Marcelo Ryan, S. Homma, Kyota Tokiwa, K. Hashimoto, F. Yamada, Dani Gómez
Kashima lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 T. Hayakawa
- 7 R. Ogawa
- 5 I. Sekigawa
- 55 N. Ueda
- 25 R. Koike
- 17 Élber
- 8 Matheus Bueno
- 14 Y. Higuchi
- 27 Y. Matsumura
- 40 Y. Suzuki
- 9 Léo Ceará
Bench: K. Chida, K. Misao, G. Shibasaki, T. Yamada, K. Tsukui, H. Hayashu, H. Matsumoto, A. Čavrić
FC Tokyo vs Kashima head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Tokyo 3 · draws 2 · Kashima 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Kashima | 1-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2026-02-07 | FC Tokyo | 1-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Tokyo | 0-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2025-03-01 | Kashima | 2-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2024-07-20 | Kashima | 2-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2024-04-07 | FC Tokyo | 2-0 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2023-07-16 | FC Tokyo | 1-3 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2023-05-20 | Kashima | 1-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2022-10-01 | Kashima | 0-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2022-05-29 | FC Tokyo | 3-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Tokyo Verdy — match page 2026-11-07
- Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-11-07
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki 2026-11-07
- Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale — match page 2026-11-07
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vissel Kobe vs Urawa 2026-11-08
- Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Tokyo, previous: Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo analysis
- Kashima, previous: Kashima – Cerezo Osaka, 2026-10-31