Updated

J1 League · Matchday 14

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale

· Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa City· Referee Yusuke Ohashi

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Kashiwa Reysol to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kashiwa ReysolDrawKawasaki Frontale

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKashiwa ReysolDrawKawasaki Frontale
Model56%19%24%
Market43%25%32%
Published46%23%30%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.77.
  • The market prices Kashiwa Reysol below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kashiwa Reysol, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.21Now 2.19 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kashiwa Reysol2.212.19-0.02
Draw3.823.80-0.02
Kawasaki Frontale2.832.90+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.65Kashiwa Reysol
1.77Kawasaki Frontale
Total expected goals
4.42
Attack rating (Kashiwa Reysol / Kawasaki Frontale)
1.56 / 1.42
Defence rating (Kashiwa Reysol / Kawasaki Frontale)
0.95 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 1 2.6% 6.2% 5.0% 2.9% 1.9% 2 4.2% 7.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 3 3.7% 6.6% 5.9% 3.4% 2.3% 4+ 4.7% 8.3% 7.4% 4.3% 2.9%

Rows: Kashiwa Reysol goals. Columns: Kawasaki Frontale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kashiwa Reysol46%2.16
Draw23%4.28
Kawasaki Frontale30%3.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.23
Under 2.518%5.44
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.29
No22%4.45
Double chance1X (Kashiwa Reysol or draw)70%1.44
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Kawasaki Frontale)54%1.86
Handicap -1Kashiwa Reysol win by 2+37%2.67
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale recent form

Kashiwa Reysol 4W 1D 1L
Kawasaki Frontale 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kashiwa Reysol at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kawasaki Frontale away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kashiwa Reysol at home only, Kawasaki Frontale away only.

Expected lineups

Kashiwa Reysol lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 29 K. Nagai
  2. 26 D. Sugioka
  3. 4 T. Koga
  4. 42 W. Harada
  5. 5 K. Endo
  6. 39 N. Nakagawa
  7. 28 S. Toshima
  8. 44 K. Yuba
  9. 87 H. Yamauchi
  10. 8 Y. Koizumi
  11. 18 Y. Kakita

Bench: H. Mitsumaru, M. Hosoya, Y. Segawa, T. Kubo, R. Kojima, Y. Yamanouchi, R. Harakawa, M. Mitsuta

Kawasaki Frontale lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 49 S. Brodersen
  2. 5 A. Sasaki
  3. 28 Y. Maruyama
  4. 4 Pedro Romano
  5. 29 R. Yamahara
  6. 16 Y. Ozeki
  7. 8 K. Tachibanada
  8. 23 Marcinho
  9. 14 Y. Wakizaka
  10. 17 T. Ito
  11. 20 K. Mochiyama

Bench: L. Yamaguchi, Y. Matsunagane, Y. Yamamoto, Y. Kobayashi, S. Miura, S. Kawahara, F. Uremović, Shuto Yamaichi, Ryuki Osa

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Kashiwa Reysol 2 · draws 5 · Kawasaki Frontale 3.

Kashiwa ReysolDrawsKawasaki Frontale
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Kashiwa Reysol1-0Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League
2026-02-08Kawasaki Frontale5-3Kashiwa ReysolJ1 League
2025-10-12Kashiwa Reysol4-1Kawasaki FrontaleJ-League Cup
2025-10-08Kawasaki Frontale3-1Kashiwa ReysolJ-League Cup
2025-09-28Kawasaki Frontale4-4Kashiwa ReysolJ1 League
2025-02-22Kashiwa Reysol1-1Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League
2024-07-20Kashiwa Reysol2-3Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League
2024-05-25Kawasaki Frontale1-1Kashiwa ReysolJ1 League
2023-12-09Kawasaki Frontale0-0Kashiwa ReysolEmperor Cup
2023-10-29Kashiwa Reysol1-1Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match