Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview
In the J1 League fixture between Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the 1X2 probabilities show Machida Zelvia at 33%, a draw at 28%, and Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Each team has an expected goals figure of 1.27. Recent form indicates Machida Zelvia has drawn twice and won four times, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won five out of their last six matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: model vs market
| Source | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.90 | 2.92 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.36 | 2.33 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Machida Zelvia / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 1.33 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Machida Zelvia / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 0.58 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Machida Zelvia goals. Columns: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Machida Zelvia or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 16% | 6.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Machida Zelvia and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
Machida Zelvia
4W 2D 0L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Machida Zelvia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Machida Zelvia at home only, Sanfrecce Hiroshima away only.
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Machida Zelvia 0 · draws 0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-1 | Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| 2025-02-16 | Machida Zelvia | 1-2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| 2024-09-28 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-0 | Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| 2024-04-03 | Machida Zelvia | 1-2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
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Before and after this match
- Machida Zelvia, previous: Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka prediction
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, previous: Mito Hollyhock – Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2026-10-31