V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy preview
In the J1 League match between V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy, the 1X2 probabilities show V-varen Nagasaki at 49%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The expected goals indicate V-varen Nagasaki at 1.66 and Tokyo Verdy at 1.09. This suggests a competitive match, but the recent form could impact the outcome.
V-varen Nagasaki's recent results include L-W-L-D-L-D, while Tokyo Verdy has W-D-L-L-D-L. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. However, if Tokyo Verdy improves their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy: model vs market
| Source | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.08.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on V-varen Nagasaki, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Tokyo Verdy | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (V-varen Nagasaki / Tokyo Verdy)
- 0.96 / 0.82
- Defence rating (V-varen Nagasaki / Tokyo Verdy)
- 1.01 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Columns: Tokyo Verdy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Tokyo Verdy | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (V-varen Nagasaki or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Tokyo Verdy) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | V-varen Nagasaki win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy recent form
V-varen Nagasaki
1W 2D 3L
Tokyo Verdy
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
V-varen Nagasaki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Tokyo Verdy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: V-varen Nagasaki at home only, Tokyo Verdy away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page 2026-10-31
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka 2026-10-31
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus 2026-10-31
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page 2026-10-31
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- V-varen Nagasaki, previous: Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki, 2026-10-25
- Tokyo Verdy, previous: Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka analysis