Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki preview
In the J1 League fixture between Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki, the 1X2 probabilities show Urawa at 50%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Urawa's expected goals stand at 1.86, while V-varen Nagasaki's is lower at 1.29.
Both teams to score is at 62%, indicating a good chance for goals from both sides. However, V-varen Nagasaki's recent form, with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. Urawa's mixed results, with 4 wins and 2 losses, also suggest unpredictability.
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki: model vs market
| Source | Urawa | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Urawa / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 1.15 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Urawa / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 1.16 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Urawa goals. Columns: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Urawa or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or V-varen Nagasaki) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Urawa win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
Urawa
4W 0D 2L
V-varen Nagasaki
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Urawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
V-varen Nagasaki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Urawa at home only, V-varen Nagasaki away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Urawa, previous: Urawa vs JEF United Chiba: odds and pick
- V-varen Nagasaki, previous: V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction