Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol preview
In the J1 League fixture, Kashima faces Kashiwa Reysol with a 36% chance for Kashima to win, 22% for a draw, and 42% for Kashiwa Reysol to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability. The expected goals are 1.99 for Kashima and 2.14 for Kashiwa Reysol, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams show strong recent form, with Kashima winning 3 of their last 5 matches and Kashiwa Reysol winning 4 of their last 5. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 77%. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes could still occur.
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol: model vs market
| Source | Kashima | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 21% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 21% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.27
- Attack rating (Kashima / Kashiwa Reysol)
- 1.37 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Kashima / Kashiwa Reysol)
- 0.96 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kashima goals. Columns: Kashiwa Reysol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kashima or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Kashiwa Reysol) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win by 2+ | 26% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
Kashima
3W 1D 2L
Kashiwa Reysol
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kashima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Kashiwa Reysol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kashima at home only, Kashiwa Reysol away only.
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kashima 2 · draws 0 · Kashiwa Reysol 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Kashiwa Reysol | 0-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2026-02-21 | Kashima | 2-0 | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Kashima, previous: Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima: odds and pick
- Kashiwa Reysol, previous: FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol, 2026-10-21