Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima faces Shimizu S-pulse with a 73% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% probability. However, Shimizu S-pulse has shown resilience, recently drawing and winning in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima's expected goals stand at 2.33, while Shimizu S-pulse is at 0.69. The model suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. With such contrasting expected goals, the outcome could shift if Shimizu S-pulse manages to convert their chances effectively.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse: model vs market
| Source | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 1.74 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Shimizu S-pulse)
- 0.55 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Columns: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 73% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.50 | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 9% | 11.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Shimizu S-pulse) | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 51% | 1.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5W 0D 1L
Shimizu S-pulse
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home only, Shimizu S-pulse away only.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1 · draws 1 · Shimizu S-pulse 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2026-03-22 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3-1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| 2025-08-06 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3-0 | Shimizu S-pulse | Emperor Cup |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, previous: V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction
- Shimizu S-pulse, previous: Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia analysis