Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos preview
In the J1 League fixture between Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos, the 1X2 probabilities show Nagoya Grampus at 16%, a draw at 26%, and Yokohama F. Marinos leading at 58%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance.
Nagoya Grampus has an expected goals figure of 0.81, while Yokohama F. Marinos stands at 1.70. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 46%. The recent form of Nagoya Grampus includes three losses in their last six matches, while Yokohama F. Marinos has a more stable performance with three wins in the same period. This discrepancy in form could influence the match outcome.
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: model vs market
| Source | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 26% | 57% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 26% | 57% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Nagoya Grampus / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 0.96 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Nagoya Grampus / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 1.28 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nagoya Grampus goals. Columns: Yokohama F. Marinos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 16% | 6.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nagoya Grampus or draw) | 43% | 2.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Yokohama F. Marinos) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form
Nagoya Grampus
2W 0D 4L
Yokohama F. Marinos
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nagoya Grampus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yokohama F. Marinos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nagoya Grampus at home only, Yokohama F. Marinos away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Nagoya Grampus, previous: Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka prediction
- Yokohama F. Marinos, previous: Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy, 2026-10-21