Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia preview
In the J1 League match between Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia, the 1X2 probabilities show Vissel Kobe at 34%, a draw at 27%, and Machida Zelvia leading at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 54%.
Recent form indicates Vissel Kobe has won 5 of their last 6 matches, while Machida Zelvia has won 4 of their last 6. However, Vissel Kobe's expected goals are 1.38, slightly lower than Machida Zelvia's 1.47. This could suggest a tighter match than the probabilities indicate, especially given Machida Zelvia's recent head-to-head success.
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia: model vs market
| Source | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Vissel Kobe / Machida Zelvia)
- 1.24 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Vissel Kobe / Machida Zelvia)
- 0.73 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vissel Kobe goals. Columns: Machida Zelvia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Machida Zelvia | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vissel Kobe or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Machida Zelvia) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win by 2+ | 18% | 5.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia recent form
Vissel Kobe
5W 0D 1L
Machida Zelvia
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vissel Kobe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Machida Zelvia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vissel Kobe at home only, Machida Zelvia away only.
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Vissel Kobe 0 · draws 0 · Machida Zelvia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Machida Zelvia | 3-1 | Vissel Kobe | Emperor Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Vissel Kobe, previous: Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe analysis
- Machida Zelvia, previous: Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia analysis