Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka preview
In the J1 League fixture between Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka, the 1X2 probabilities show Avispa Fukuoka at 49% to win, compared to Tokyo Verdy's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance of occurring. Tokyo Verdy has struggled recently, with a record of L-L-D-L-D-D, while Avispa Fukuoka's form is W-L-L-L-D-L.
The expected goals indicate Tokyo Verdy at 0.76 and Avispa Fukuoka at 1.34, suggesting a potential advantage for the visitors. However, the possibility of both teams to score is at 40%, and the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 35%. If Tokyo Verdy improves their attacking performance, the match dynamics could shift.
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka: model vs market
| Source | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.08
- Attack rating (Tokyo Verdy / Avispa Fukuoka)
- 0.57 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Tokyo Verdy / Avispa Fukuoka)
- 1.30 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals. Columns: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 24% | 4.09 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tokyo Verdy or draw) | 56% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Avispa Fukuoka) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win by 2+ | 20% | 5.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
Tokyo Verdy
0W 3D 3L
Avispa Fukuoka
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tokyo Verdy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Avispa Fukuoka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tokyo Verdy at home only, Avispa Fukuoka away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse — match page 2026-10-24
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Tokyo Verdy, previous: Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy, 2026-10-21
- Avispa Fukuoka, previous: Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka prediction