Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama preview
Kawasaki Frontale faces Fagiano Okayama with a 54% chance to win, while both teams have a 66% probability for Over 2.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which accounts for 10% of predictions. Kawasaki Frontale's expected goals stand at 2.08, compared to Fagiano Okayama's 1.31.
However, recent form shows Kawasaki Frontale has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Fagiano Okayama has won 3 of their last 6. This could impact the match outcome, as Fagiano Okayama's recent wins might boost their confidence. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama: model vs market
| Source | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kawasaki Frontale and Fagiano Okayama expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Fagiano Okayama)
- 1.43 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Kawasaki Frontale / Fagiano Okayama)
- 1.04 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kawasaki Frontale goals. Columns: Fagiano Okayama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kawasaki Frontale | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Fagiano Okayama | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kawasaki Frontale or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Fagiano Okayama) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kawasaki Frontale win by 2+ | 33% | 3.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kawasaki Frontale and Fagiano Okayama recent form
Kawasaki Frontale
4W 1D 1L
Fagiano Okayama
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kawasaki Frontale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fagiano Okayama away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kawasaki Frontale at home only, Fagiano Okayama away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-24
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka 2026-10-24
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page 2026-10-24
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-24
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-25
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page 2026-10-25
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Kawasaki Frontale, previous: Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe analysis
- Fagiano Okayama, previous: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock, 2026-10-21