Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj preview
In the match between Arsenal Tivat and Bokelj, the 1X2 probabilities show Arsenal Tivat at 28%, draw at 31%, and Bokelj at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Arsenal Tivat's expected goals stand at 1.01, while Bokelj's is higher at 1.28, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Both teams to score has a probability of 47%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 40%. Arsenal Tivat's recent form includes 2 losses and a draw in their last 5 matches, while Bokelj has won 3 of their last 5. This recent form could affect the match outcome, making predictions less certain.
Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Bokelj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Published | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arsenal Tivat and Bokelj expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Arsenal Tivat / Bokelj)
- 0.90 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Arsenal Tivat / Bokelj)
- 1.40 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal Tivat goals. Columns: Bokelj goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Bokelj | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal Tivat or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Bokelj) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bokelj win by 2+ | 19% | 5.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arsenal Tivat and Bokelj recent form
Arsenal Tivat
1W 1D 4L
Bokelj
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal Tivat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Bokelj away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Tivat at home only, Bokelj away only.
Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal Tivat 4 · draws 3 · Bokelj 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Bokelj | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-07-08 | Bokelj | 3-1 | Arsenal Tivat | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-05-16 | Bokelj | 3-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-15 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-11-22 | Bokelj | 2-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-17 | Arsenal Tivat | 2-1 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-10 | Bokelj | 1-1 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2025-03-12 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Bokelj | First League |
| 2024-11-02 | Bokelj | 1-2 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-08-31 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-1 | Bokelj | First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Buducnost Podgorica v Mornar — match page 2026-10-27
- Petrovac vs Mladost DG 2026-10-28
- Sutjeska vs Jezero — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Dečić vs Otrant-Olympic — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Arsenal Tivat, previous: Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat analysis
- Arsenal Tivat, next: Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat: odds and pick
- Bokelj, previous: Bokelj vs Dečić prediction
- Bokelj, next: Bokelj – Buducnost Podgorica, 2026-11-01