Sutjeska vs Jezero preview
In the match between Sutjeska and Jezero, the 1X2 probabilities show Sutjeska at 67%, Jezero at 11%, and a draw at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Sutjeska has been in good form recently, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Jezero has struggled, recording 1 draw and 5 losses in the same period.
While Sutjeska's expected goals stand at 2.08 compared to Jezero's 0.75, there is a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. The head-to-head record shows 1 win for each team and 3 draws in their last 5 encounters, indicating that Jezero could still pose a challenge despite their recent form.
Sutjeska vs Jezero: model vs market
| Source | Sutjeska | Draw | Jezero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 21% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sutjeska and Jezero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Sutjeska / Jezero)
- 1.13 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Sutjeska / Jezero)
- 0.69 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sutjeska vs Jezero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sutjeska goals. Columns: Jezero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sutjeska vs Jezero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sutjeska vs Jezero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sutjeska | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Jezero | 11% | 8.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sutjeska or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Jezero) | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sutjeska win by 2+ | 44% | 2.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sutjeska and Jezero recent form
Sutjeska
4W 2D 0L
Jezero
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sutjeska at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jezero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sutjeska at home only, Jezero away only.
Sutjeska vs Jezero head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sutjeska 4 · draws 3 · Jezero 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Jezero | 0-0 | Sutjeska | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-04-26 | Sutjeska | 1-1 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-01 | Jezero | 1-1 | Sutjeska | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-02-10 | Sutjeska | 0-1 | Jezero | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-26 | Sutjeska | 1-0 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-24 | Jezero | 2-1 | Sutjeska | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-18 | Jezero | 2-0 | Sutjeska | First League |
| 2025-03-29 | Sutjeska | 2-1 | Jezero | First League |
| 2024-11-25 | Jezero | 0-1 | Sutjeska | First League |
| 2024-09-22 | Sutjeska | 2-1 | Jezero | First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Buducnost Podgorica v Mornar — match page 2026-10-27
- Arsenal Tivat v Bokelj — match page 2026-10-28
- Petrovac vs Mladost DG 2026-10-28
- Dečić vs Otrant-Olympic — team news & stats 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Sutjeska, previous: Otrant-Olympic v Sutjeska analysis
- Sutjeska, next: Mladost DG vs Sutjeska prediction
- Jezero, previous: Jezero – Petrovac, 2026-10-23
- Jezero, next: Jezero v Dečić analysis