Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès preview

In the Botola Pro fixture between Amal Tiznit and CODM Meknès, the 1X2 probabilities show CODM Meknès at 47%, compared to Amal Tiznit at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance, suggesting a competitive match.

Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 55%. Amal Tiznit's expected goals are 1.21, while CODM Meknès has 1.67. If Amal Tiznit can improve their recent form, which includes three draws, they may challenge CODM Meknès, who has shown stronger recent performance with three wins in their last six matches.

Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Amal Tiznit	Draw	CODM Meknès
Model	27%	26%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	26%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.21.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Amal Tiznit and CODM Meknès expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Amal Tiznit

1.67CODM Meknès

Total expected goals: 2.88
Attack rating (Amal Tiznit / CODM Meknès): 0.98 / 1.17
Defence rating (Amal Tiznit / CODM Meknès): 1.33 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 8.2% 7.8% 4.3% 2.6% 1 5.7% 12.5% 9.5% 5.3% 3.2% 2 4.1% 6.9% 5.7% 3.2% 1.9% 3 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Amal Tiznit goals. Columns: CODM Meknès goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Amal Tiznit vs CODM Meknès

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Amal Tiznit	27%	3.74
	Draw	26%	3.78
	CODM Meknès	47%	2.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.82
	Under 2.5	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.39
Double chance	1X (Amal Tiznit or draw)	53%	1.88
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or CODM Meknès)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	CODM Meknès win by 2+	25%	3.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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