Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida preview

Kawkab Marrakech faces Difaa EL Jadida with a 46% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. Kawkab Marrakech's expected goals stand at 1.81, while Difaa EL Jadida has 1.43.

However, recent form shows Kawkab Marrakech with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Difaa EL Jadida has only one win and two losses in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty. This could lead to a different outcome than expected.

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kawkab Marrakech	Draw	Difaa EL Jadida
Model	46%	25%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	46%	25%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.43.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kawkab Marrakech and Difaa EL Jadida expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Kawkab Marrakech

1.43Difaa EL Jadida

Total expected goals: 3.23
Attack rating (Kawkab Marrakech / Difaa EL Jadida): 1.01 / 1.58
Defence rating (Kawkab Marrakech / Difaa EL Jadida): 0.85 / 1.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 4.6% 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1 6.1% 11.2% 7.2% 3.4% 1.7% 2 6.4% 9.2% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5% 3 3.9% 5.5% 3.9% 1.9% 0.9% 4+ 2.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.6%

Rows: Kawkab Marrakech goals. Columns: Difaa EL Jadida goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kawkab Marrakech vs Difaa EL Jadida

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kawkab Marrakech	46%	2.19
	Draw	25%	4.02
	Difaa EL Jadida	29%	3.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.68
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.55
	No	35%	2.82
Double chance	1X (Kawkab Marrakech or draw)	71%	1.42
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Difaa EL Jadida)	54%	1.84
Handicap -1	Kawkab Marrakech win by 2+	25%	3.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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