Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie preview
In the I Liga fixture between Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie, the 1X2 probabilities show Arka Gdynia at 41% to win, while Podbeskidzie is at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. The expected goals indicate Arka Gdynia at 1.40 and Podbeskidzie at 1.16, suggesting a close match.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Arka Gdynia has lost 5 of their last 6 matches, while Podbeskidzie has shown more resilience with 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games. The model also suggests a 53% chance for both teams to score and a 47% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, which could change the dynamics if either team finds their scoring touch.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie: model vs market
| Source | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Podbeskidzie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arka Gdynia, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Podbeskidzie | 3.10 | 3.10 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Arka Gdynia / Podbeskidzie)
- 0.98 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Arka Gdynia / Podbeskidzie)
- 1.04 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arka Gdynia goals. Columns: Podbeskidzie goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Podbeskidzie | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arka Gdynia or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Podbeskidzie) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win by 2+ | 19% | 5.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie recent form
Arka Gdynia
1W 0D 5L
Podbeskidzie
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arka Gdynia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Podbeskidzie away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arka Gdynia at home only, Podbeskidzie away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-11-07
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk 2026-11-08
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Arka Gdynia, previous: Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia prediction
- Podbeskidzie, previous: Podbeskidzie – Warta Poznań, 2026-10-31