Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki preview
Pogoń Siedlce faces Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki with a 37% chance of winning for Siedlce compared to 36% for Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model. The expected goals are 1.25 for Siedlce and 1.36 for Grod. Mazowiecki, indicating a close match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%. Recent form shows Siedlce with two wins in their last six games, while Grod. Mazowiecki has the same number of wins but in a different sequence. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 0.97 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 1.16 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Columns: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Siedlce or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) | 63% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win by 2+ | 15% | 6.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
Pogoń Siedlce
2W 0D 4L
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Siedlce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Siedlce at home only, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away only.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 1 · draws 0 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 0-2 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Pogoń Siedlce | 1-2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page 2026-11-07
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-11-07
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk 2026-11-08
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Siedlce, previous: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów: odds and pick
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, previous: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Stal Mielec analysis