Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów preview
In the I Liga fixture between Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów, the 1X2 probabilities show Ruch Chorzów at 59%, while Stal Mielec sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 12% probability. Stal Mielec's expected goals are 0.83, significantly lower than Ruch Chorzów's 1.80, indicating a potential struggle for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score stands at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 49%, suggesting that while Ruch Chorzów is favored, Stal Mielec may still find a way to score. Recent form also shows Stal Mielec with mixed results, while Ruch Chorzów is on a strong run with 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów: model vs market
| Source | Stal Mielec | Draw | Ruch Chorzów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Stal Mielec / Ruch Chorzów)
- 0.90 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Stal Mielec / Ruch Chorzów)
- 1.27 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stal Mielec goals. Columns: Ruch Chorzów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 21% | 4.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Ruch Chorzów | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stal Mielec or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Ruch Chorzów) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów recent form
Stal Mielec
2W 1D 3L
Ruch Chorzów
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stal Mielec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-1
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ruch Chorzów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stal Mielec at home only, Ruch Chorzów away only.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stal Mielec 0 · draws 1 · Ruch Chorzów 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ruch Chorzów | 2-1 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2025-08-31 | Stal Mielec | 2-2 | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page 2026-11-07
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-11-07
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk 2026-11-08
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Stal Mielec, previous: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Stal Mielec analysis
- Ruch Chorzów, previous: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów: odds and pick