Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa preview
Warta Poznań faces Polonia Warszawa with 33% chances for a home win, while Polonia has a 36% chance to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Polonia's expected goals of 1.21 compared to Warta's 1.15.
Both teams to score has a 49% probability, indicating a close match. However, Warta's recent form of L-W-L-W-W-L could impact their performance, while Polonia's form of W-D-W-W-W-D suggests they are more consistent. The confidence grade is C, highlighting uncertainty in the outcome.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | Warta Poznań | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polonia Warszawa, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Poznań | 2.94 | 2.85 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 2.21 | 2.25 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Warta Poznań / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.89 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Warta Poznań / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.85 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Warta Poznań goals. Columns: Polonia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warta Poznań | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Warta Poznań or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Warszawa) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win by 2+ | 16% | 6.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa recent form
Warta Poznań
3W 1D 2L
Polonia Warszawa
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Warta Poznań at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polonia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Warta Poznań at home only, Polonia Warszawa away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page 2026-11-07
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk 2026-11-08
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Warta Poznań, previous: Podbeskidzie – Warta Poznań, 2026-10-31
- Polonia Warszawa, previous: ŁKS Łódź v Polonia Warszawa analysis