Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk preview
In the match between Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk, the 1X2 probabilities show Polonia Bytom at 43%, Lechia Gdansk at 34%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% chance of occurring. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 72%, indicating a strong expectation for an active game.
Polonia Bytom's expected goals stand at 1.99, while Lechia Gdansk's is at 1.74. Recent form shows Polonia Bytom with a record of L-W-W-W-D-W and Lechia Gdansk at W-L-L-W-W-W. A potential issue for the prediction could be the confidence grade of C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk: model vs market
| Source | Polonia Bytom | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.51.
- The market prices Polonia Bytom below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Polonia Bytom / Lechia Gdansk)
- 1.09 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Polonia Bytom / Lechia Gdansk)
- 0.90 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polonia Bytom goals. Columns: Lechia Gdansk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Bytom | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Lechia Gdansk | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polonia Bytom or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lechia Gdansk) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Bytom win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk recent form
Polonia Bytom
4W 1D 1L
Lechia Gdansk
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polonia Bytom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-0
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Lechia Gdansk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polonia Bytom at home only, Lechia Gdansk away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page 2026-11-07
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-11-07
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Polonia Bytom, previous: Polonia Bytom – Odra Opole, 2026-11-02
- Lechia Gdansk, previous: Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice: odds and pick