Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów preview
Nieciecza faces Chrobry Głogów with a 51% chance of winning compared to Chrobry's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 12% of the time according to our model. Nieciecza has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.54, while Chrobry Głogów sits at 0.91.
However, both teams to score is at 48%, indicating some potential for Chrobry to find the net. Nieciecza's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Chrobry has struggled with 3 losses in their last 5. These factors could influence the match outcome, making it less predictable.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów: model vs market
| Source | Nieciecza | Draw | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nieciecza, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nieciecza | 1.94 | 1.88 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.44 | -0.05 |
| Chrobry Głogów | 3.31 | 3.52 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Nieciecza / Chrobry Głogów)
- 1.09 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Nieciecza / Chrobry Głogów)
- 0.86 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nieciecza goals. Columns: Chrobry Głogów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Chrobry Głogów | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nieciecza or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Chrobry Głogów) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win by 2+ | 25% | 3.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów recent form
Nieciecza
3W 2D 1L
Chrobry Głogów
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nieciecza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chrobry Głogów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nieciecza at home only, Chrobry Głogów away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page 2026-11-06
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice 2026-11-06
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page 2026-11-07
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-11-07
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk 2026-11-08
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page 2026-11-08
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Nieciecza, previous: Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza analysis
- Chrobry Głogów, previous: Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia prediction