Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni preview
In the Liga II fixture between Chindia Targoviste and Popești-Leordeni, the 1X2 probabilities show Chindia Targoviste at 59%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (8%). Chindia has a strong expected goals figure of 2.44 compared to Popești-Leordeni's 1.64, suggesting they are the favorites to win.
However, the recent form indicates that both teams are performing well, with Chindia winning their last 6 matches and Popești-Leordeni winning 5 out of their last 6. This could lead to a more competitive match than the numbers suggest. Additionally, the high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals (77%) and both teams to score (74%) indicate a potential for a higher-scoring game, which could impact the outcome.
Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni: model vs market
| Source | Chindia Targoviste | Draw | Popești-Leordeni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 5 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chindia Targoviste, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chindia Targoviste | 1.56 | 1.52 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Popești-Leordeni | 5.01 | 5.00 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chindia Targoviste and Popești-Leordeni expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.08
- Attack rating (Chindia Targoviste / Popești-Leordeni)
- 1.65 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Chindia Targoviste / Popești-Leordeni)
- 0.92 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chindia Targoviste goals. Columns: Popești-Leordeni goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chindia Targoviste | 59% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Popești-Leordeni | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chindia Targoviste or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Popești-Leordeni) | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chindia Targoviste and Popești-Leordeni recent form
Chindia Targoviste
6W 0D 0L
Popești-Leordeni
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chindia Targoviste at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Popești-Leordeni away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chindia Targoviste at home only, Popești-Leordeni away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Concordia v ASA Targu Mures — match page 2026-11-07
- Metaloglobus vs Dumbrăviţa 2026-11-07
- CS Afumati vs FC Bacau — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Unirea Slobozia v CSM Satu Mare — match page 2026-11-07
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gloria Bistriţa vs Cetatea Suceava — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bihor Oradea v Slatina — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Chindia Targoviste, previous: Ştefăneşti v Chindia Targoviste analysis
- Popești-Leordeni, previous: Popești-Leordeni – Metalul Buzău, 2026-10-31