CS Afumati vs FC Bacau preview
In the Liga II fixture between CS Afumati and FC Bacau, the 1X2 probabilities show CS Afumati at 40%, FC Bacau at 34%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability.
The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 66%. CS Afumati has expected goals of 1.70, while FC Bacau has 1.56. Recent form shows CS Afumati with two losses followed by two wins and a draw, while FC Bacau has a mixed record with two losses, a win, a loss, and a win. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
CS Afumati vs FC Bacau: model vs market
| Source | CS Afumati | Draw | FC Bacau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CS Afumati vs FC Bacau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CS Afumati, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS Afumati | 2.42 | 2.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.22 | -0.02 |
| FC Bacau | 2.50 | 2.62 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CS Afumati and FC Bacau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (CS Afumati / FC Bacau)
- 1.08 / 1.12
- Defence rating (CS Afumati / FC Bacau)
- 1.17 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CS Afumati vs FC Bacau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CS Afumati goals. Columns: FC Bacau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CS Afumati vs FC Bacau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CS Afumati vs FC Bacau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CS Afumati | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| FC Bacau | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CS Afumati or draw) | 66% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Bacau) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | CS Afumati win by 2+ | 22% | 4.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CS Afumati and FC Bacau recent form
CS Afumati
2W 1D 3L
FC Bacau
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CS Afumati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Bacau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CS Afumati at home only, FC Bacau away only.
CS Afumati vs FC Bacau head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: CS Afumati 1 · draws 0 · FC Bacau 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | FC Bacau | 3-1 | CS Afumati | Liga II |
| 2025-08-02 | CS Afumati | 3-2 | FC Bacau | Liga II |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Concordia v ASA Targu Mures — match page 2026-11-07
- Metaloglobus vs Dumbrăviţa 2026-11-07
- Unirea Slobozia v CSM Satu Mare — match page 2026-11-07
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gloria Bistriţa vs Cetatea Suceava — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bihor Oradea v Slatina — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- CS Afumati, previous: CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs CS Afumati: odds and pick
- FC Bacau, previous: FC Bacau vs Metaloglobus: odds and pick