Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare preview
In the Liga II fixture between Unirea Slobozia and CSM Satu Mare, the 1X2 probabilities show Unirea Slobozia at 47%, while CSM Satu Mare sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Unirea Slobozia has an expected goals figure of 1.31, compared to CSM Satu Mare's 0.82.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. With 36% for Over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, there is potential for a higher-scoring game or for CSM Satu Mare to perform better than expected. Unirea Slobozia's recent form shows inconsistency, which could impact the outcome.
Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare: model vs market
| Source | Unirea Slobozia | Draw | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Unirea Slobozia, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unirea Slobozia | 1.86 | 1.83 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.31 | -0.06 |
| CSM Satu Mare | 3.95 | 3.92 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Unirea Slobozia and CSM Satu Mare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Unirea Slobozia / CSM Satu Mare)
- 0.90 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Unirea Slobozia / CSM Satu Mare)
- 0.85 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Unirea Slobozia goals. Columns: CSM Satu Mare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Unirea Slobozia vs CSM Satu Mare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Unirea Slobozia | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| CSM Satu Mare | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Unirea Slobozia or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or CSM Satu Mare) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Unirea Slobozia win by 2+ | 22% | 4.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Unirea Slobozia and CSM Satu Mare recent form
Unirea Slobozia
2W 1D 3L
CSM Satu Mare
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Unirea Slobozia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CSM Satu Mare away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Unirea Slobozia at home only, CSM Satu Mare away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Concordia v ASA Targu Mures — match page 2026-11-07
- Metaloglobus vs Dumbrăviţa 2026-11-07
- CS Afumati vs FC Bacau — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gloria Bistriţa vs Cetatea Suceava — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bihor Oradea v Slatina — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Unirea Slobozia, previous: ASA Targu Mures v Unirea Slobozia analysis
- CSM Satu Mare, previous: CSM Satu Mare – Viitorul Şelimbăr, 2026-10-31