Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures preview
In the Liga II fixture between Concordia and ASA Targu Mures, the 1X2 probabilities show Concordia at 69%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). Concordia's expected goals stand at 2.77 compared to ASA Targu Mures' 1.23, indicating a strong attacking potential for the home side.
However, Concordia's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while ASA Targu Mures has struggled, recording 4 losses in their last 5 games. Additionally, while there is a 76% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 67% probability for both teams to score, any defensive errors or an unexpected performance from ASA Targu Mures could alter the outcome.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures: model vs market
| Source | Concordia | Draw | ASA Targu Mures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Concordia below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Concordia, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concordia | 1.67 | 1.69 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 |
| ASA Targu Mures | 4.20 | 4.25 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Concordia / ASA Targu Mures)
- 1.49 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Concordia / ASA Targu Mures)
- 1.07 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Concordia goals. Columns: ASA Targu Mures goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concordia | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| ASA Targu Mures | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Concordia or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or ASA Targu Mures) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Concordia win by 2+ | 49% | 2.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Concordia and ASA Targu Mures recent form
Concordia
3W 1D 2L
ASA Targu Mures
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Concordia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ASA Targu Mures away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Concordia at home only, ASA Targu Mures away only.
Concordia vs ASA Targu Mures head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Concordia 2 · draws 1 · ASA Targu Mures 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | ASA Targu Mures | 0-0 | Concordia | Liga II |
| 2017-05-05 | Concordia | 2-0 | ASA Targu Mures | Liga I |
| 2017-03-18 | ASA Targu Mures | 2-1 | Concordia | Liga I |
| 2016-11-29 | Concordia | 1-2 | ASA Targu Mures | Liga I |
| 2016-08-20 | ASA Targu Mures | 0-1 | Concordia | Liga I |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Metaloglobus vs Dumbrăviţa 2026-11-07
- CS Afumati vs FC Bacau — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Unirea Slobozia v CSM Satu Mare — match page 2026-11-07
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Gloria Bistriţa vs Cetatea Suceava — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bihor Oradea v Slatina — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa — match page 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Concordia, previous: Slatina v Concordia analysis
- ASA Targu Mures, previous: ASA Targu Mures v Unirea Slobozia analysis