Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste preview
In the Liga II fixture, Ştefăneşti faces Chindia Targoviste with 11% chances for Ştefăneşti to win and 69% for Chindia Targoviste. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, with a 75% probability of Over 2.5 goals.
Ştefăneşti has struggled recently, losing their last 6 matches, while Chindia Targoviste has won 4 of their last 5. However, a surprising performance from Ştefăneşti could disrupt expectations, especially if they manage to score, as there is a 58% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste: model vs market
| Source | Ştefăneşti | Draw | Chindia Targoviste |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Published | 11% | 19% | 69% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.01 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chindia Targoviste below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ştefăneşti and Chindia Targoviste expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (Ştefăneşti / Chindia Targoviste)
- 0.60 / 1.60
- Defence rating (Ştefăneşti / Chindia Targoviste)
- 1.59 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ştefăneşti goals. Columns: Chindia Targoviste goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ştefăneşti vs Chindia Targoviste
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ştefăneşti | 11% | 8.73 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Chindia Targoviste | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ştefăneşti or draw) | 31% | 3.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Chindia Targoviste) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ştefăneşti and Chindia Targoviste recent form
Ştefăneşti
0W 0D 6L
Chindia Targoviste
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ştefăneşti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Chindia Targoviste away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ştefăneşti at home only, Chindia Targoviste away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- CSA Steaua Bucureşti v CS Dinamo București — match page 2026-10-30
- ASA Targu Mures vs Unirea Slobozia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs CS Afumati 2026-10-31
- Popești-Leordeni vs Metalul Buzău — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Dumbrăviţa vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- CSM Satu Mare vs Viitorul Şelimbăr 2026-10-31
- Cetatea Suceava vs Bihor Oradea 2026-10-31
- FC Bacau vs Metaloglobus — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Ştefăneşti, previous: Metalul Buzău vs Ştefăneşti: odds and pick
- Chindia Targoviste, previous: Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare: odds and pick