Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti preview
In the Liga II fixture between Metalul Buzău and CSA Steaua Bucureşti, the 1X2 probabilities show Metalul Buzău at 57% to win, while CSA Steaua Bucureşti sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance. Metalul Buzău has a strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while CSA Steaua Bucureşti has drawn in 4 of their last 6.
However, the expected goals indicate Metalul Buzău at 1.55 and CSA Steaua Bucureşti at only 0.68, which could suggest a lower-scoring game. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are 39% and 40%, respectively, showing that while Metalul Buzău is favored, there is a chance for a tighter match than expected.
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti: model vs market
| Source | Metalul Buzău | Draw | CSA Steaua Bucureşti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Metalul Buzău below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Metalul Buzău and CSA Steaua Bucureşti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Metalul Buzău / CSA Steaua Bucureşti)
- 0.94 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Metalul Buzău / CSA Steaua Bucureşti)
- 0.66 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Metalul Buzău goals. Columns: CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metalul Buzău | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Metalul Buzău or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Metalul Buzău win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Metalul Buzău and CSA Steaua Bucureşti recent form
Metalul Buzău
4W 1D 1L
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Metalul Buzău at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Metalul Buzău at home only, CSA Steaua Bucureşti away only.
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Metalul Buzău 0 · draws 1 · CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Metalul Buzău | 1-1 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | Liga II |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Ştefăneşti — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Bihor Oradea v Slatina — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Politehnica Timisoara v CSM Reşiţa — match page 2026-11-09
- CS Dinamo București vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Metalul Buzău, previous: Popești-Leordeni – Metalul Buzău, 2026-10-31
- CSA Steaua Bucureşti, previous: CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București: odds and pick