Updated

Liga II · Matchday 12

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București

· Stadionul Steaua, Bucharest

Alin prediction CSA Steaua Bucureşti to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CSA Steaua BucureştiDrawCS Dinamo București
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.49.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București preview

In the Liga II fixture, CSA Steaua Bucureşti has a 51% probability to win against CS Dinamo București, who has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams show potential for scoring, as the expected goals are 2.27 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti and 1.66 for CS Dinamo București.

The model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 73%. However, CSA Steaua Bucureşti's recent form includes two draws and a loss in their last six matches, while CS Dinamo București has lost their last five games. This inconsistency could affect the outcome.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCSA Steaua BucureştiDrawCS Dinamo București
Model61%19%20%
Market———
Published61%19%20%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.49.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CS Dinamo București expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.61CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.49CS Dinamo București
Total expected goals
4.10
Attack rating (CSA Steaua Bucureşti / CS Dinamo București)
0.97 / 1.08
Defence rating (CSA Steaua Bucureşti / CS Dinamo București)
1.16 / 1.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.7% 7.1% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 2 5.6% 8.4% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3 4.9% 7.3% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 4+ 6.0% 8.9% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7%

Rows: CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals. Columns: CS Dinamo București goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CSA Steaua Bucureşti61%1.64
Draw19%5.23
CS Dinamo București20%5.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.29
Under 2.522%4.47
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.62
Double chance1X (CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or CS Dinamo București)39%2.56
Handicap -1CSA Steaua Bucureşti win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CS Dinamo București recent form

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2W 3D 1L
CS Dinamo București 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-2
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

CS Dinamo București away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home only, CS Dinamo București away only.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs CS Dinamo București head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0 · draws 1 · CS Dinamo București 0.

CSA Steaua BucureştiDrawsCS Dinamo București
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-08-16CS Dinamo București0-0CSA Steaua BucureştiLiga II

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot CSA Steaua Bucureşti to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on CSA Steaua Bucureşti