Updated

Liga II · Matchday 10

Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia

· May 1 Stadium, Slatina

Alin prediction Slatina to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SlatinaDrawUnirea Slobozia

Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia preview

In the Liga II fixture, Slatina faces Unirea Slobozia with a 70% probability for a Slatina win and an expected scoreline of 2-0 at 14%. Slatina's recent form shows 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Unirea Slobozia has lost 5 of their last 6 games.

The model suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score. However, if Unirea Slobozia improves their performance, they could challenge Slatina's dominance. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSlatinaDrawUnirea Slobozia
Model70%21%10%
Market———
Published70%21%10%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Slatina and Unirea Slobozia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Slatina
0.67Unirea Slobozia
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Slatina / Unirea Slobozia)
1.32 / 0.96
Defence rating (Slatina / Unirea Slobozia)
0.58 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1 12.4% 9.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.9% 9.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 9.7% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 8.1% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Slatina goals. Columns: Unirea Slobozia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Slatina70%1.44
Draw21%4.85
Unirea Slobozia10%10.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.30
No57%1.77
Double chance1X (Slatina or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Unirea Slobozia)30%3.29
Handicap -1Slatina win by 2+46%2.20
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Slatina and Unirea Slobozia recent form

Slatina 5W 1D 0L
Unirea Slobozia 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Slatina at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Unirea Slobozia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Slatina at home only, Unirea Slobozia away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Slatina to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Slatina