CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău preview
CSM Satu Mare faces Metalul Buzău with a 25% chance of winning compared to 41% for Metalul Buzău. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects the expected goals of 0.84 for CSM Satu Mare and 1.14 for Metalul Buzău. Recent form shows CSM Satu Mare struggling with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Metalul Buzău has 3 wins in their last 6.
While both teams to score has a 40% likelihood, the low expected goals for CSM Satu Mare suggests they may struggle to find the net. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. If CSM Satu Mare can improve their form or if Metalul Buzău underperforms, the match could yield a different result.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău: model vs market
| Source | CSM Satu Mare | Draw | Metalul Buzău |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 33% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 33% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (CSM Satu Mare / Metalul Buzău)
- 0.75 / 1.03
- Defence rating (CSM Satu Mare / Metalul Buzău)
- 0.93 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSM Satu Mare goals. Columns: Metalul Buzău goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSM Satu Mare | 25% | 3.94 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Metalul Buzău | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.50 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSM Satu Mare or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Metalul Buzău) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Metalul Buzău win by 2+ | 18% | 5.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CSM Satu Mare and Metalul Buzău recent form
CSM Satu Mare
0W 3D 3L
Metalul Buzău
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSM Satu Mare at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Metalul Buzău away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSM Satu Mare at home only, Metalul Buzău away only.
CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: CSM Satu Mare 1 · draws 0 · Metalul Buzău 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Metalul Buzău | 0-1 | CSM Satu Mare | Liga II |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Concordia v Viitorul Şelimbăr — match page 2026-10-17
- CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava — match page 2026-10-17
- Popești-Leordeni vs CS Afumati — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia 2026-10-17
- CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus — match page 2026-10-17
- Dumbrăviţa vs Bihor Oradea — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Ştefăneşti v CS Dinamo București — match page 2026-10-17
- CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs FC Politehnica Timisoara 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- CSM Satu Mare, previous: CS Dinamo București vs CSM Satu Mare prediction
- Metalul Buzău, previous: Metalul Buzău v ASA Targu Mures analysis