Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle preview
In the Scotland FA Cup fixture between Brechin and Strathspey Thistle, the 1X2 probabilities show Brechin at 66% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (8%). Brechin's expected goals stand at 2.83, while Strathspey Thistle's is 1.42. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Brechin.
However, Brechin's recent form includes a draw and two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Additionally, while there is an 80% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance for both teams to score, any defensive errors could alter the expected outcome.
Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle: model vs market
| Source | Brechin | Draw | Strathspey Thistle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 17% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 17% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Brechin and Strathspey Thistle expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.25
- Attack rating (Brechin / Strathspey Thistle)
- 1.13 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Brechin / Strathspey Thistle)
- 1.00 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brechin goals. Columns: Strathspey Thistle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brechin | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.75 | |
| Strathspey Thistle | 16% | 6.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brechin or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Strathspey Thistle) | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brechin win by 2+ | 47% | 2.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Brechin and Strathspey Thistle recent form
Brechin
3W 1D 2L
Strathspey Thistle
1W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brechin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Brechin at home only, Strathspey Thistle away only.
Brechin vs Strathspey Thistle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brechin 9 · draws 0 · Strathspey Thistle 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Strathspey Thistle | 1-0 | Brechin | Football League - Highland League |
| 2025-08-02 | Brechin | 3-0 | Strathspey Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| 2025-03-26 | Strathspey Thistle | 1-4 | Brechin | Football League - Highland League |
| 2024-09-07 | Brechin | 7-0 | Strathspey Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| 2024-01-27 | Strathspey Thistle | 1-6 | Brechin | Football League - Highland League |
| 2023-09-16 | Brechin | 5-0 | Strathspey Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| 2023-01-28 | Brechin | 6-0 | Strathspey Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
| 2022-09-03 | Strathspey Thistle | 0-5 | Brechin | Football League - Highland League |
| 2022-03-19 | Strathspey Thistle | 1-3 | Brechin | Football League - Highland League |
| 2021-10-30 | Brechin | 7-3 | Strathspey Thistle | Football League - Highland League |
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