Updated

Scotland FA Cup · Round of 128

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic

Alin prediction Hill Of Beath Hawthorn to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hill Of Beath HawthornDrawMusselburgh Athletic
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.57.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic preview

In the FA Cup match between Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic, the 1X2 probabilities show Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 45%, while Musselburgh Athletic stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.93 for Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and 1.57 for Musselburgh Athletic.

Both teams to score has a probability of 69%, and there is a 68% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows Hill Of Beath Hawthorn winning three of their last six matches, while Musselburgh Athletic has also won three out of six. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHill Of Beath HawthornDrawMusselburgh Athletic
Model45%24%31%
Market———
Published45%24%31%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.57.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.57Musselburgh Athletic
Total expected goals
3.49
Attack rating (Hill Of Beath Hawthorn / Musselburgh Athletic)
1.34 / 1.18
Defence rating (Hill Of Beath Hawthorn / Musselburgh Athletic)
0.88 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 2.0% 1.1% 1 4.9% 10.1% 7.2% 3.8% 2.1% 2 5.6% 8.8% 6.9% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.6% 5.7% 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% 4+ 2.7% 4.2% 3.3% 1.7% 1.0%

Rows: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn goals. Columns: Musselburgh Athletic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hill Of Beath Hawthorn45%2.20
Draw24%4.20
Musselburgh Athletic31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.18
Double chance1X (Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Musselburgh Athletic)55%1.83
Handicap -1Hill Of Beath Hawthorn win by 2+26%3.86
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Musselburgh Athletic recent form

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 4W 0D 2L
Musselburgh Athletic 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home only, Musselburgh Athletic away only.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Musselburgh Athletic head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1 · draws 0 · Musselburgh Athletic 0.

Hill Of Beath HawthornDrawsMusselburgh Athletic
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-15Hill Of Beath Hawthorn1-0Musselburgh AthleticFootball League - Lowland League

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Prediction snapshot Hill Of Beath Hawthorn to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Our pick: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn to win 18+ Bet Now